Week 18 performance: 13-3
Wrong picks: Philadelphia, New England, Jacksonville
Final record: 185-87
What I learned in Week 18…
– The following teams picked the worst time of the year to fall apart…
1) Philadelphia: A 10-1 start from a team that looked like it would complete its revenge tour instead ended in a disastrous 11-6 finish. Losing to the Cowboys and 49ers is one thing. Losing to the Giants, Cardinals, and the Drew Lock Seahawks on the other hand? That’s a massive red flag.
2) Miami: That loss to Tennessee really adds up here. Despite the feel-good win against the Cowboys, the Dolphins fell apart in the final two weeks, getting humbled by Baltimore and stopped by Buffalo (who had a 4% chance of winning the AFC East after Week 13). Instead of hosting the Bills in South Beach, the Dolphins are now traveling to much colder territory in Missouri.
3) Jacksonville: At 8-3, the Jaguars practically had the AFC South in the bag. Trevor’s ankle troubles and the team running into legit opponents was all she wrote for Jacksonville’s failed attempt to repeat in the South. It should surprise no one that their final win in that nasty six-game stretch was against Carolina, because duh.
– I guess when the Packers game ended, Carolina decided their season did too, because they spent the last two weeks getting outscored a combined 35-0. The offseason is going to be worse than the same old song and dance for the Panthers. Look at their previously horrible years…
1) Finished 1-15 in 2001. They didn’t have the top draft pick in ’02 because the Texans appeared, but since the Texans were dumb enough to draft David Carr with the top pick, Carolina took Julius Peppers with the #2 pick. Carolina finished 7-9 in 2002-03 and made it to the Super Bowl in 2003-04. Also, Julius Peppers is a future Hall of Famer.
2) Finished 2-14 in 2010. This time, Carolina had the top draft pick and used it on Cam Newton. The Panthers finished 6-10 in 2011-12, 7-9 in 2012-13, and won the NFC South at 12-4 in 2013-14. While Cam Newton is definitely a prime and deserving candidate for the Panthers Ring of Honor, he is unfortunately not a future Hall of Famer.
…only problem is that in 2024, Carolina has the first pick… in the second round. This is nothing new, as Carolina traded away this upcoming pick and DJ Moore to Chicago, in exchange for Bryce Young. Under a new coaching regime, Bryce Young will get a second chance in 2024. Ultimately, the Panthers have to have a good offseason with free agency and maybe find a diamond in the rough late in the draft.
At this rate, it’s all they got.
– Arthur Smith should have worried more about getting outscored 31-0 in the second half in a must-win game than he was about New Orleans scoring a late touchdown. At the very least, he and New Orleans coach Dennis Allen made up after realizing Allen was trying to end the game, only to have Jameis Winston end things on his own terms. None of it matters now because after three straight 7-10 finishes, Arthur Smith is out of Atlanta. Along with that, the following head coaches have also cleaned out their office…
1) Ron Rivera – As expected, the Riverboat sunk after leading the Commanders to a 4-13 finish. Ron’s a nice guy, but three winning seasons in thirteen years does not make you a good coach. I’m positive he’ll find work somewhere as a coordinator or a position coach though.
2) Mike Vrabel – This one surprised me, but then again, when you have a loaded offense and still only get 6 wins, something has to give. I think Vrabel ends up somewhere else to coach though.
3) Bill Belichick – While not officially announced, it’s assumed he and the Patriots are mutually parting ways. The rebuilding in New England begins this Spring, and I honestly think they go with a youth movement for the next era. Fact remains, Belichick’s contributions to the Patriots is arguably second to only one person.
4) Pete Carroll – Recently announced, Carroll is expected to stay as an advisor or another position with the Seahawks, but he will not be the head coach in 2024. If this is so, then props to Carroll for helping the Seahawks become relevant. Under him, the Seahawks nearly had two Lombardi trophies, as well as their best stretch of successful runs, only having three losing seasons from 2010 to 2023 (and they still won a playoff game in 2010, despite being 7-9).
Barring any unexpected retirements, I don’t see anyone else losing their job as a result of this season. There’s rumors that Andy Reid might ride off into the sunset after this season. If true, then Reid has definitely earned his retirement and a spot in Canton.
– Week 18 MVP: Dak Prescott ends the season with another hot performance and makes a strong case for regular season MVP. Honorable mention to CJ Stroud
– Week 18 Dud: Trevor Lawrence comes up short in his season finale, sending Jacksonville home. Dishonorable mentions to Tyler Goodson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Bailey Zappe
Playoff Preview
Let’s briefly look at all 14 starting quarterbacks, from earliest played to most recently…
1) Joe Flacco
Started: 2008
Postseason record: 10-5
Highlight: Super Bowl XLVII MVP
2) Matthew Stafford
Started: 2009
Postseason record: 4-3
Highlight: Super Bowl LVI Champion
3) Jared Goff
Started: 2016
Postseason record: 2-2
Highlight: Super Bowl LVIII runner-up
4) Dak Prescott
Started: 2016
Postseason record: 2-4
Highlight: 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year
5) Patrick Mahomes
Started: 2018
Postseason record: 11-3
Highlights: 2x Super Bowl MVP, 2x NFL MVP
6) Lamar Jackson
Started: 2018
Postseason record: 1-3
Highlight: 2019 NFL MVP
7) Josh Allen
Started: 2018
Postseason record: 4-4
8) Baker Mayfield
Started: 2018
Postseason record: 1-1
9) Jalen Hurts
Started: 2020
Postseason record: 2-2
Highlight: Super Bowl LVII runner-up
10) Brock Purdy
Started: 2022
Postseason record: 2-1
MAKING THEIR FIRST PLAYOFF START
11) Mason Rudolph (Started in 2019)
12) Tua Tagovailoa (Started in 2020)
13) Jordan Love (Truly started in 2023)
14) CJ Stroud (Started in 2023)
Cleveland Browns (11-6) @ Houston Texans (10-7)
Previously this season: Cleveland wins in Houston 36-22 on Christmas Eve
First and foremost, all due respect to the Texans here; they have both the Offensive Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud, on the team, plus they also have the Coach of the Year, Demeco Ryans. The vast improvements made by the Texans since their 3-13-1 mess of a season last year have been beyond impressive, and they could be a force to be reckoned with in the AFC South for years to come.
However, all that ends this weekend. Cleveland struck gold with my pick for Comeback Player of the Year, Joe Flacco. The Browns are still not 100% without the likes of Nick Chubb, but they’re finding ways to win with a nearly-40 Flacco. I still think they’re one of very few threats to Baltimore in the AFC, and they’ll do more than enough to seal this game in the bag.
Pick: Cleveland
Miami Dolphins (11-6) @ Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
Previously this season: Kansas City wins in Germany 21-14
If this game was being played literally anywhere but Arrowhead, I’d consider the Dolphins. Both teams going into this game aren’t as good as they used to be, but I’d have to say the Dolphins have fallen on harder times than Kansas City has. Add to that the cold temperatures that Miami is about to be playing in, and I think that adds up for the Chiefs getting at least one (and only one) playoff win this postseason.
Pick: Kansas City
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) @ Buffalo Bills (11-6)
This one was already predictable before TJ Watt got injured, but now that he’s out, the Steelers have to take their depleted defense to take on arguably the hottest team in the AFC right now? Major ouch.
Pick: Buffalo
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Previously this season: Philadelphia wins 25-11 in Tampa Bay
This one is honestly anyone’s guess. Tampa Bay stumbled their way into the postseason after getting blown out by the Saints and beating Carolina with only three field goals.
However, the Eagles are as equally bad, if not worse right now. Philadelphia ended the season going 1-5 in their final stretch and Jalen Hurts isn’t 100% going into this game. If the Bucs can bring back some of the energy they had against Jacksonville a few weeks ago, there could be an upset on the horizon.
Pick: Tampa Bay
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) @ Detroit Lions (12-5)
The feel good story of the playoff season, as Matthew Stafford returns to his original home for the first time since leaving in 2021. The Rams have been pretty good in recent weeks and some are considering them in a big upset over the hungry NFC North Champions. Their big wins this season include a few against the 9-8 teams that missed the playoffs (Seattle twice, Indy, New Orleans), plus coming up short in an OT thriller with Baltimore.
However, Detroit is hosting their first playoff game in three decades and Dan Campbell is determined to not let anything slip here and hopefully learned from his mistakes against the Cowboys. In the battle of teams playing QB-swap a few years ago, Detroit gets the next laugh and sets up for an epic rematch in Cowboys Stadium.
Pick: Detroit
Green Bay Packers (9-8) @ Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
Jordan Love has responded to critics by playing the best football of his career in recent weeks when many said the Packers were dead in the water, and even against a juggernaut like Dallas, this team can’t be slept on. Dallas, however, was the only team in their division to match their performance from last year, and Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level right now. If the Cowboys slip in the postseason, it won’t happen in the first round.
Pick: Dallas
With all 14 teams set, here’s who I want to see win the Super Bowl, from most preferred to least preferred:
Lions
Cowboys
Bills
Browns
Dolphins
Texans
Ravens
49ers
Rams
Packers
Buccaneers
Eagles
Nobody wins and the Lombardi gets launched into the sun
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
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