Wild Card predictions: 4-2
Wrong picks: Dallas, Cleveland
What I learned last weekend…
– I’m very surprised Mike McCarthy still has a job in Dallas next season. Making the playoffs three times in a five year run is impressive, but failing to do much of anything relevant in the postseason is usually grounds for firing coaches down in Dallas. Wade Phillips had three straight winning seasons, two of which Dallas won their division, and still got fired the moment Dallas began to be horrible. With Jerry Jones’ ability to act like the owner, general manager, and head coach on occasion, firing McCarthy wouldn’t have surprised me.
At the end of the day, McCarthy doesn’t forget where he came from. Once a Packer, always a Packer.
– With the Cowboys losing, Dak Prescott’s stock drops as well. He can put up good numbers all day, but folds like a wet blanket come playoff time, rocking a postseason record of 2-5; to top it off, his only two playoff wins are against a Seahawks team with no kicker and an aging Tom Brady in the final game of his career.
Only time will tell if Dallas pulls the trigger with moving on from Dak, but if they do, who replaces him? I honestly think Dak doesn’t go anywhere… yet.
– On top of having the offensive rookie of the year and coach of the year, Houston has a defense that has potential to be scary against the right team. Joe Flacco found that out the hard way as Cleveland’s Cinderella story came to an abrupt end after back-to-back picks returned for touchdowns. No word on whether or not Flacco returns to play football next season, but if this is indeed the end, it was a good run Joe. Enjoy your potential Comeback Player of the Year award and ride off into the sunset.
– Everyone had their doubts, but I think they can be put to rest now: Jordan Love is the answer in Green Bay. Love responded to critics and analysts by playing arguably the best game of his career against a highly-favored Cowboys team. The previous two quarterbacks in Green Bay brought one Lombardi each and cemented their status as all-time legends.
Basically the bar is both high and not high at the same time for Jordan Love.
– Buffalo was never in danger of losing to Pittsburgh, as it should be.
– Kansas City was never in danger of losing to Miami, as it should be.
– Tampa Bay sent Jason Kelce out with a huge L and was never in danger of losing to Philadelphia. Which brings us to the best moment of the entire weekend…
– …Detroit ends the drought. When the Lions last won a postseason game, I was in first grade, the Dallas Cowboys only had two Super Bowl championships, and George H.W. Bush was President of the United States. We witnessed three decades of heartbreak, whether it was having a top 10 all-time wide receiver and a top 1 running back get zero rings, multiple playoff appearances only to mostly be blown out, or the infamous years of 4-12, 2-14, and of course, 0-16.
In a game where the story needed no explanation, Detroit held off the Rams to survive by a single point, winning their first playoff game in 32 years. Matthew Stafford, you may not be in a Lions jersey anymore, but your lack of getting the job done still means you contributed to the win! Once a Lion, always a Lion! >_>
– The new leader of the playoff drought now goes all the way back to December 30, 2000, when the Miami Dolphins won an OT playoff game against Indianapolis. Ever since then, the Dolphins have made the playoffs five times between 2001 and 2023, have only won the division once in that span (then again, playing in the same division as Tom Brady will do that to you. Also, that division title was during Brady’s year spent on Injured Reserve.). At the very least, they’ll always have 1972 and Dan Marino, even if both of those legendary moments are over 20 years old at minimum.
The new five-longest runs without a playoff win
1) Miami Dolphins – December 2000
2) Las Vegas Raiders – January 2003
3) Washington Commanders – January 2005
4) Chicago Bears – January 2011
5) New York Jets – January 2011
As for this year’s Dolphins, they showed a lot of potential, but I think Tua’s time on the team is going to be in question this offseason.
– Wild Card MVP: With a near perfect rating on the road, Jordan Love pulls off the big upset and earns the first postseason MVP of this year’s playoffs. Honorable mention to Baker Mayfield
– Wild Card Dud: Joe Flacco regressed hard and fell apart at the worst moment. Dishonorable mention to Dak Prescott and the officiating in the Buffalo/Pittsburgh game.
Houston Texans (11-7) @ Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
With Cleveland out of the way, Baltimore’s path to the Super Bowl just got slightly easier. That being said, Houston shouldn’t be sold short here; their defense is sharp against the right quarterback and CJ Stroud is having a fantastic rookie season. However, prior to resting for the playoffs, Lamar Jackson was playing his best football since his MVP year. Baltimore is well-rested (hopefully not too rested) and should break off the Texans with ease.
Pick: Baltimore
Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) @ Buffalo Bills (12-6)
A very dangerous game to look at. When I think about these two teams, it’s no secret that Buffalo is better this season. However, I look at several factors going into this…
1) Buffalo’s defense is banged up compared to what they had in their last meeting with KC
2) In Buffalo’s recent winning streak, some of those were near-losses to unnecessary teams. Stomping the Cowboys is impressive. Nearly losing to the Chargers without Justin Herbert is not. They even let Pittsburgh come within one possession at one point last weekend after being up 21-0 to start the game.
3) This is Kansas City, led by the miracle maker Patrick Mahomes. Even in their struggles, I think they somehow manage to win this by one possession when Buffalo finds a way to Buffalo themselves out of the playoffs.
I needed one upset, and this one fits the bill.
Pick: Kansas City
Green Bay Packers (10-8) @ San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
What Jordan Love and crew has done in the past month has been very remarkable, and if nothing else, the Packers have their quarterback for the next several years. San Francisco, however, is still the better team and their defense should do more than enough to seal this game in the bag.
Pick: San Francisco
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) @ Detroit Lions (13-5)
In an unexpected turn of events, Detroit went from hosting their first playoff game in 30 years to hosting two playoff games in the same season. The culture has changed a ton in this season for the Lions and their fans, and that will come to play in this game coming up. Tampa Bay’s season has gone better than many expected, and Baker Mayfield has a strong case for winning Comeback Player of the Year after what he went through last season. The only difference is that last week, the Bucs were playing an Eagles team with depleted morale and finished 1-6 to end the season. This weekend, Tampa plays a team that has gone 5-2 in that same 7-game stretch and has a lot more motivation than the Eagles did. Sometimes, that’s all it takes for a team to make their first conference championship in 32 years.
Pick: Detroit
Enjoy retirement Jason Kelce, definitely one of the best centers to ever step on the field.
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