Hickman’s Super Bowl LVIII prediction, where I discuss when building a dynasty comes full circle…

Conference championship performance: 0-2
Yeah, sometimes there’s days like this.

What I learned last weekend…

“You either die a hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.”

Such is the case of Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.  In 2017, Mahomes was drafted to KC but spent his rookie season on the bench as Alex Smith continued to put in solid work in his final year with the team.  Once 2018 hit, all bets were off as Mahomes easily secured the regular season MVP and the rest was history.  While Mahomes Dee Ford’s offside penalty and the Chiefs’ defense came up short in 2019, there was no denying that Patrick Mahomes was the next head of the table.

Fast forward to 2024, where Patrick Mahomes now has two regular season MVPs, two Super Bowl MVPs, six straight AFC Championship appearances, soon to be four Super Bowl appearances in a span of five years, and single-handedly vanquished the Madden Curse in 2020.  Obviously, he didn’t do it alone; Mahomes has had solid people surrounding him, including the likes of Andy Reid, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Isaiah Pacheco, and more.  Unfortunately, winning has a price.  It happened to the Steelers in the 70s, the Niners in the 80s, the Cowboys in the 90s, and the Patriots in the last two decades; Kansas City is the new dynasty that people outside the Midwest either love to hate or love to bandwagon.

For the second consecutive week, Patrick Mahomes has performed at an exceptional level, whether it’s keeping up with Josh Allen in a shootout or doing just enough to contain Baltimore in the midst of their mistakes.  Before this season, the only playoff road games Mahomes ever played were in the Super Bowl, where he rocks a record of
2-1.  Now he’s won back-to-back road games in enemy territory and is en route to Las Vegas. While there were notable missed calls (two, honestly) that might have benefited the Chiefs, rest assured that Baltimore made plenty of more mistakes that cost themselves the AFC Championship, and we’ll get to that shortly.

The Chiefs faced more media scrutiny than ever this season due to the relationship between Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.  At first it was whatever, until it eventually led to two groups of oversensitive individuals:

A) Those complaining about seeing Taylor Swift at a football game for less than
10 seconds.
B) Those complaining about those complaining about seeing Taylor Swift at a
football game for less than 10 seconds

Some people act like this has never happened in football before.  Remember when Jessica Simpson hooked up with Tony Romo and watched her man get absolutely washed by the Eagles?  Pepperidge Farm (probably) remembers.  The fact of the matter is, people have too much time on their hands if they’re getting worked up over Taylor Swift appearing at games to support her boyfriend; if you combine all the Swift appearances and add up the time in every shot she appears, I guarantee you it will be less time than you’ll see Usher at halftime next week.

“But Hickman, weren’t you complaining about this around Week 8 or so?”

That was different.  I was wanting Travis Kelce to score more touchdowns in order for the Drills Mafia to win the Gridiron Throne; if he’d have done that all season, Kelce and Swift could have done post-game interviews together for all I care.  With all that being said, there’s people that claim the NFL is rigged because Swift and Kelce are dating and coincidentally the Chiefs are in the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs. The same Chiefs who now have four Super Bowl appearances in the last five seasons. Surely it’s not because their quarterback is a two time MVP and two time Super Bowl MVP.If the NFL really wanted to test the waters with a crazy script, they’d have set Taylor Swift up with the Carolina Panthers tight end, whose name I don’t care to look up because they haven’t had a relevant one since Greg Olsen.  The point is, I’m 99% positive the NFL didn’t rig the Chiefs to make it to the Super Bowl.

If the Chiefs win and Kelce proposes to Swift on the spot, however?  I might be convinced.  Might be.

Now back to our regularly scheduled rant that probably 15 of you read.
– It’s easy to blame the Baltimore loss on poor officiating (which there was hardly much of in the first place), but the reality of it all is that Baltimore beat themselves before Kansas City did.

You don’t throw two interceptions in the end zone and expect to win a game.
You don’t fumble the ball into the end zone and expect to win a game.
You don’t give up your impeccable rushing game at the most important point of the season and expect to win a game.

Baltimore had 229 rushing yards against the Texans, which should have given them the hint on what to do against Kansas City.  The Chiefs had just got done allowing Buffalo run for 182 yards against them.  With Baltimore’s potential MVP and OPOY candidate at the helm, it should have been a walk in the park.

The outcome?  Baltimore only had 81 rushing yards at home against the Chiefs.  To show you how bad that is, Miami ran for 76 yards against KC at Arrowhead when it was -4 degrees at the game; everybody knows Miami forgets how to play football once it drops below 50, except against the following teams:

A) NY Jets, who forgot how to play football once Aaron Rodgers got hurt.
B) New England, who forgot how to play football once Tom Brady left in 2020.

Ultimately, it’s not a skill issue with the Ravens, it’s a discipline issue.  The key taunting penalty, the picks, the fumble, and ditching the run game at the worst possible moment to try something different eventually adds up, and that’s why Baltimore is not in the Super Bowl this season.  And it sucks because with the road ahead, I feel that this was the Ravens’ best, and arguably only, opportunity to go all the way.  Baltimore just lost their defensive coordinator to Seattle, as Mike MacDonald picks up where Pete Carroll left off.  Add to that the following in the AFC North:

1) Cincinnati went 9-8 despite not having Joe Burrow for half the season.  He’ll be back next year and the Bengals will be in the big picture once again.
2) Cleveland managed to make the playoffs, despite losing Nick Chubb early in the year and having four different starting quarterbacks.
3) Pittsburgh, who has now gone two decades without a season below .500 and
made the playoffs with Mason Rudolph as their starting quarterback.  They also went undefeated against Baltimore this year.

By no means am I saying the Ravens are screwed next season because they’ll still be a good team; but the road isn’t going to be as easy.
– After years of me dunking on Kyle Shanahan for blowing leads, his team responds by orchestrating not one, but two come-from-behind wins in the postseason.  San Francisco overcame small bits of struggle throughout the year, whether it was a rough 3-game losing streak, getting blown out by Baltimore, or trailing against Green Bay and Detroit in the playoffs.  They’ve proven they belong in the Super Bowl however, as they’re the only team this year to beat all six of the other NFC teams in the playoffs.  A win next week would solidify Brock Purdy as Mr. Relevant.
– As for Detroit, they were in a hard situation last week.  Dan Campbell opted to go for it on fourth down on two separate occasions and as a result, left six points off the board, which we now know could have potentially took them to the Super Bowl.  There’s two different scenarios here:

1) Detroit kicks the field goals on 4th down but still loses.
Media: “Dan Campbell was out of his element.”
2) Detroit fails the fourth down conversions and ends up losing (which actually happened)
Media: “Dan Campbell should have just taken the points.” (which they actually said)

Ultimately, Detroit was danged if they did and danged if they didn’t.  One thing can’t be denied though: the Lions had an incredible season.  Some delusional fans are saying Campbell shouldn’t be the Lions coach next year, but here’s the thing: stop it.

Campbell only needed three years to do a complete 180 in Detroit, as the Lions went from being 3-13-1 to nearly making the Super Bowl in a span of three seasons.  On top of that, Dan Campbell now has two postseason wins with the Lions as their head coach.

Last time I checked, that is more postseason wins than every Lions coach in the Super Bowl era combined.  Not only is Campbell’s job secure, but he’s probably less than three seasons away from having a bronze statue of him in front of Ford Field.
– With the season definitely over for the Panthers, I think it’s time to finally figure out where their two starting quarterbacks go on the all-time list for the franchise…

1) Cam Newton
2) Jake Delhomme
3) Kerry Collins
4) Steve Beuerlein
5) Teddy Bridgewater
6) Kyle Allen
7) Vinny Testaverde
8) Rodney Peete
9) Matt Moore
10) Sam Darnold
11) Derek Anderson
12) David Carr
13) Chris Weinke
14) PJ Walker
15) Andy Dalton
16) Taylor Heinicke
17) Baker Mayfield
18) Bryce Young
19) Jimmy Clausen
20) Frank Reich
21) Brian St. Pierre
22) Matt Lytle
23) Will Grier
24) Randy Fasani

Only adjustment outside the new guys: Switched Sam Darnold and Derek Anderson.  In the final weeks of the 2022 season, Darnold did just enough to barely enter the top ten, which is better than nothing.  Andy Dalton only started one game this year, which was a loss to Seattle; in said loss, he still accumulated 350 passing yards and three touchdowns.  Bryce Young… well… he has next year to prove
that he isn’t a bust; he statistically had one good game this season out of 16 starts, but that’s also what happens when your franchise is a dumpster fire.
– Conference Championship MVP: Patrick Mahomes did just enough to secure last weekend’s award.  Honorable mention to Christian McCaffrey and Travis Kelce.
– Conference Championship Dud: If Zay Flowers doesn’t fumble at the goal line, it would have been a different kind of ball game.  Dishonorable mention to Lamar Jackson

Super Bowl LVIII: Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) vs San Francisco 49ers (14-5)

This one’s tougher to think about than their last meeting four years ago. Nothing much has changed with Kansas City, except for the fact that Tyreek Hill isn’t on the team anymore; despite that, KC’s now made back-to-back Super Bowl appearances without him. On the other hand, this is almost a completely different 49ers team with a new offense that could potentially match up to Mahomes and friends. In the battle of quarterbacks, Mahomes will always win over Purdy; while Mahomes can make a star out of anyone, Purdy struggles if either Deebo or CMC aren’t open. That alone, however, will give the 49ers a chance they can win this, as their weapons surrounding Purdy are better than those surrounding Mahomes. San Francisco has a tight defense capable of stopping anyone at the right time, but we haven’t seen much from them this postseason. Kansas City’s defense did wonders against the nearly-unanimous MVP in the conference title game though, and the Chiefs’ defensive coordinator should be commended in some way, shape, or form after what they’ve done this season. Finally, Kelce lowballed everyone all season and waited until the playoffs to truly ball out. If it was his mission to pretend to suck until the end of the road because he knew Mahomes was going to be the miracle maker, then it was a mission well accomplished.

Here’s the thing. I want the Niners to win. The idea of Brock Purdy getting a ring in his second year is the stuff they turn into a movie. The idea of Steve Wilks and Christian McCaffrey getting rings is the ultimate last laugh against David Tepper. While we’re at it, Deebo Samuel deserves a ring in his career as well.

And with that, I hope with every fiber of my being that I’m absolutely wrong here. San Francisco let the Packers and Lions build up huge leads. Kansas City is capable of doing the same thing; the only difference is they don’t get complacent when they have a huge lead.
My pick: Kansas City over San Francisco 31-24

See you guys next week!

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