Hickman’s Week 4 NFL Picks, where I discuss a bad offense in the Windy City, plus the remaining winless teams in the league

Week 3 performance: 11-5
Wrong picks: Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Kansas City, NY Giants, New England
Overall record: 30-18
Survivor League: Broncos keep the Jets winless, therefore keeping me alive in a league with 46 other users! (Teams used so far: Buccaneers, Browns, Broncos)
Fantasy Football: Lost in all three leagues. 2-1 in my league, 1-2 in Nikki’s league, 0-3 in Motorpool league.  Not feeling it right now, folks.

Let’s face it: Chicago is where quarterbacks go to die

What I learned in Week 3…
– Let me reiterate something that we have all learned from being witnesses to his career:

You. Don’t. Give. Aaron. Rodgers. Time.

None.  None at all.  Rodgers did to the 49ers the same thing he’s done in recent years to the Lions, Bears, and Cowboys (twice) among many other teams.  He will get the Packers into field goal range.  Heck, one time, Rodgers got into the end zone against Dallas in under a minute.  Finally, if Aaron Rodgers isn’t in field goal range, he will just chuck it to the skies while fans pray for a miracle; the crazy part is even that has succeeded a couple times.  The Packers are back after that week 1 fluke against the Saints, and if they somehow met in the playoffs, I’d take Rodgers to get even with them. The point is, if you’re playing the Packers and the score is close, make sure there’s less than 10 seconds left before you score a game-winning or game-tying field goal or touchdown.

Also on the other side of the field, you can take Kyle Shanahan out of Atlanta, but you can’t take Atlanta out of Kyle Shanahan.
– Carolina’s defense delivers again, holding the Houston Texans to only nine points.  Bear in mind this is the same Texans that had to start unexperienced quarterback Davis Mills in place of Tyrod Taylor, but a win is a win.  Unfortunately, it came at a cost; the Panthers now have to play a tough stretch of games to include the Cowboys, Eagles, and Vikings without Christian McCaffrey (arguably the new face of Carolina after the departures of Luke Kuechly, Cam Newton, and Greg Olsen) and Jaycee Horn (the eighth pick in this year’s draft).

Darnold nearly looked like he did playing for the Jets at first, but in the second half against Houston, he managed to hold his own and score when it mattered.  His biggest challenge since coming to Charlotte is coming up very shortly, and from here on out, the Panthers will truly be tested.
– Justin Fields’ first career start in the NFL ended with the Bears’ offense managing a whole 47 yards in 60 minutes against the Browns.  That isn’t a knock against the Browns whatsoever; their team is firing on all cylinders.  But let’s look at facts here: the Bears’ offense has not been good in ages.  Their only Super Bowl win was 10% Walter Payton and 90% the Bears’ defense.  They’re still the only team in the league to not have a quarterback have a 4000+ yard passing season.  Their last five starting quarterbacks before Fields have been Andy Dalton, Mitch Trubisky, Mike Glennon, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Barkley.

Obviously bad quarterbacks can ride stellar defenses to a Lombardi, just ask Trent Dilfer.  But this is something that has been happening for years in the Windy City.
– In fact, as the picture above states, Justin Tucker had 17 more productive yardage than the entire Bears offense at the end of regulation when he solidified himself into NFL immortality with a record 66-yard field goal.  The first noteworthy thing of this is that Tucker adds his most impressive mark to his Hall of Fame resume.  The second noteworthy thing of this is the Lions finding themselves in yet another close game, especially their closest one to date.

Detroit’s in a rough situation considering they have the second-youngest team in the league.  This is where I’d say they’re in a rebuilding phase, but let’s be real, they’ve been rebuilding longer than any other team in the league.
– For the first time since 2015, the Kansas City Chiefs have a losing record.  That being said, it’s still too early to panic; that 2015 team went 1-5 before winning an astounding 11 games in a row before bowing out to New England in the playoffs because Andy Reid managed time with a sundial.

Mahomes is still doing everything he can to carry this team; the only question is will it be enough, especially in a division where all three of KC’s rivals are a combined 8-1.
– That one pick-six excluded, Derek Carr has the Raiders returning to their 2016 form.  All three of their wins have been against teams who won at least 10 games last season, and two of them have gone into overtime.  The Raiders might do more than just make the playoffs; they might actually host their first playoff game in 19 years, and the first one in Las Vegas.  Bear in mind, however, the AFC West is red hot this early in the season and the division title is anyone’s guess at the moment.
– Only the Panthers, Cardinals, Rams, Broncos, and Raiders remain in the quest to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins.  Two of those teams play each other this week, and the other three are about to get tested big time.  It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see either Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford be the last undefeated quarterback at the end of week 4.
– Meanwhile, only the Jaguars, Lions, Colts, Giants, and Jets remain in the quest to join the 2017 Browns, the 2008 Lions, and the 1976 Buccaneers.  I’ll provide some insight on this one…
1) Jaguars – Both Urban Meier and Trevor Lawrence have to realize that what worked in college won’t work in the NFL.  I’m not calling Lawrence off just yet; remember that Peyton Manning had a rough rookie season as well, and now he’s one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.  Lawrence now has Dan Arnold to throw to, who was not bad in Carolina for three weeks; the bad news, however, is that cornerback C.J. Henderson is gone, leaving a hole in Jacksonville’s already bad defense.  With a bad defense, the Jaguars’ only strategy now is to put the team on Lawrence’s shoulders and attempt to pour as many offensive points on the board as they can.

Because right now, they’re riding an 18-game losing streak and only need 8 more to tie the record.
2) Lions – They’re gonna get a few wins this season, that I don’t doubt for a second.  Dan Campbell has the team biting ankles like he promised they would, and they’ve lost two games by one possession.  The question isn’t what will they do this year, it’s more like what can they do next year?
3) Colts – They play the Jaguars twice, so there’s a possibility of them splitting wins there.  Indianapolis is in a rough spot considering they no longer look like a legit team with Rivers’ retirement; their offense has only looked good once this season, and that loss came from their defense failing against the Rams.  Something will have to give, or else I got a feeling Reich doesn’t coach in Indy next season.
4) Giants – Ownership has hinted at heads rolling if the Giants start 0-3, but nothing’s been announced yet.  The only positive here is that the Giants have only lost two games by field goals in the final moments, and they still gotta play the Eagles and Football Team a combined three more times.  Regardless, this is nothing more than season 5 of the Giants’ rebuilding stage
5) Jets – I’m still in disbelief that their closest game was against the Panthers, but Carolina’s built a reputation of being Cardiac Cats, so it is what it is.  Regardless, this team is still a mess; they’ve been outscored 70-20 in three weeks, plus they’re 2-17 since the beginning of last year.  They have games this season against the Falcons, Colts, Texans, and Jaguars, so the idea of 0-17 is only half-likely to happen.
– Week 3 MVP: Lots of great contenders this week, but I gotta give the nod to Justin Herbert, who looked calm and collected as ever stunning the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Honorable mentions to Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen.
– Week 3 Dud: How long does it take before I rename this the Zach Wilson award? Dishonorable mention to everyone else playing for the Jets.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (2-1)
The two for one special! Not only do we get to see the Bengals on prime time, but also Trevor Lawrence? Count me in for a game I probably won’t watch!
Pick: Cincinnati

Washington Football Team (1-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Matt Ryan has never lost to Washington. However, since the Falcons are still terrible and are nowhere near the same level as Buffalo, Washington’s defense will change that fact.
Pick: Washington

Houston Texans (1-2) @ Buffalo Bills (2-1)
Ouch. Houston got dusted by a team without a star running back for three quarters and a stellar defense. Imagine how bad this will be when Houston has to play a team with a legitimately scary offense?
Pick: Buffalo

Detroit Lions (0-3) @ Chicago Bears (1-2)
Time to get a little crazy here, but I smell an upset brewing. The Lions are itching for a win and the Bears are constantly running in circles regardless of who is starting. If Dalton is able to start, maybe the Bears have a chance. At the moment, however, I think the Lions escape the winless group.
Pick: Detroit

Carolina Panthers (3-0) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1)
The first real test for Carolina, as the Cowboys are firing on all cylinders since Dak returned to action. The prime candidate for Comeback Player of the Year steps off against the Panthers’ top ranked defense in the league, and may actually have the arsenal to give the Panthers their first loss all season. Considering they’re really just a few bad kicks away from being undefeated, it’s hard to pick against the Cowboys in this one.
Pick: Dallas

Indianapolis Colts (0-3) @ Miami Dolphins (1-2)
I’m feeling a little bold here and going with a second upset. The Colts are gonna struggle all season and probably miss the playoffs by leaps and bounds, but at the very least they can sneak a win out of Florida, whether the starting quarterback is Jacoby Brisket or Tua Tagoravioli.

……what?
Pick: Indianapolis

Cleveland Browns (2-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (1-2)
I knew the Vikings weren’t that bad of a team to start 0-3!

However, Cleveland’s too good of a team to start 2-2. The Browns are looking good to win their division for the first time since the Reagan administration.
Pick: Cleveland

New York Giants (0-3) @ New Orleans Saints (2-1)
So if the Giants start 0-4, do some of their coaches start eating pink slips? We’ll find out after Jameis Winston eats another W.
Pick: New Orleans

Tennessee Titans (2-1) @ New York Jets (0-3)
Have you seen the way both teams have played lately? Tennessee would win this game if Derrick Henry were the starting quarterback. Tennessee could even win this game if their offense missed the bus.
Pick: Tennessee

Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) @ Philadelphia Eagles (1-2)
I saw tension within the Eagles when Dallas spent the whole evening breaking down their defense. Now they’re about to run into a Kansas City team that lost at home and is on a two game losing streak? This might be over by halftime.
Pick: Kansas City

Arizona Cardinals (3-0) @ Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
Your game of the week, ladies and gentlemen. Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford are playing some of the best football in the league at this moment and it obviously shows with their records. Gotta give the edge to the team that just knocked Tom Brady off his perch a week ago; Stafford is a whole new quarterback on the Rams.
Pick: Los Angeles

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1)
Starting to regret that Seahawks wildcard pick. Russell might use this season as collateral to get out of Seattle. Easy win for the 49ers as they look to keep up with the Rams
Pick: San Francisco

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) @ Denver Broncos (3-0)
A tougher pick than expected, as both teams are playing great. Baltimore’s wins have been far more impressive at the moment though, so I gotta side with them here. Don’t sell the Broncos’ defense short though; they stop Lamar Jackson and this game becomes ten times more interesting.
Pick: Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) @ Green Bay Packers (2-1)
There’s no way Roethlisberger plays again after this season. Add Pittsburgh’s woes with Aaron Rodgers’ resurgence, and you got a game that’s gonna dig the hole even deeper for the Steelers.
Pick: Green Bay

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) @ New England Patriots (1-2)
This game became less interesting when the Patriots let Cam go (who has never lost to Tom Brady, by the way). With New England’s only win this season being over the NFL’s new doormat in New York, Tom Brady is about to join Peyton, Brees, and Favre as the elite who have beaten all 32 teams in the league.
Pick: Tampa Bay

Las Vegas Raiders (3-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (2-1)
Another excellent game to check out and a well-deserved prime time slot. The Raiders are off to their best start since 2002, while Justin Herbert and the Chargers are an impressive 6-1 in their last seven games. I like what the Raiders have done so far this season, plus Carr vs Herbert has potential to be a solid rivalry in the NFL. That being said, my pick is for LA to snap LV’s undefeated start; Justin Herbert is the real deal out there and the Chargers haven’t looked this good in awhile.
Pick: Los Angeles

I think in the weeks to come I might give detailed descriptions of some of the Super Bowls I’ve watched. Not the games themselves, mind you, cause we’ve had those already, but my experiences at various locations of watching different Super Bowls. There’s plenty to choose from, between 30 and 55!

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